Combined TBATS and SVM model of minimum and maximum air temperatures applied to wheat yield prediction at different locations in Europe
Artykuł w czasopiśmie
MNiSW
200
Lista 2021
| Status: | |
| Autorzy: | Gos Magdalena, Krzyszczak Jaromir, Baranowski Piotr, Murat Małgorzata, Malinowska Iwona |
| Dyscypliny: | |
| Aby zobaczyć szczegóły należy się zalogować. | |
| Rok wydania: | 2020 |
| Wersja dokumentu: | Drukowana | Elektroniczna |
| Język: | angielski |
| Wolumen/Tom: | 281 |
| Strony: | 1 - 19 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 14 |
| Scopus® Cytowania: | 19 |
| Bazy: | Web of Science | Scopus |
| Efekt badań statutowych | NIE |
| Materiał konferencyjny: | NIE |
| Publikacja OA: | NIE |
| Abstrakty: | angielski |
| This paper explores the idea of combining Trigonometric Exponential Smoothing State Space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components (TBATS) with Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to estimate time series of the minimum and maximum daily air temperatures in a period of six years for various climatic localizations in Europe. It was found that a combined SVM/TBATS model can predict not only seasonality but also local temperature variation between subsequent days observed in daily data. Because the SVM sub-model uses not only results of TBATS prediction as an input data, but also several meteorological values, such modelling cannot be treated as a future time series estimation. Therefore, it has a potential to be used for filling gaps in the air temperature data. As is shown in our results, the precision of air temperature prediction improves when using the combined SVM/TBATS modelling, compared with pure TBATS or SVM modelling. For various locations, which can be related with different climatic conditions, this improvement ranged from 3% up to 14% for the maximum daily air temperature and from 5% to 25% for the minimum daily air temperature. The temperature sums calculated on the base of air temperatures predicted with SVM/TBATS models and from measured values did not differ more than 300°C (less than 1°C per day) in majority of cases. The average error in wheat yield prediction by WOFOST and DNDC models did not exceed 12.8% and 13.3%, respectively. |
