Assessing the Efficiency of Variance Reduction Methods in the Construction Project Network Simulation
Artykuł w czasopiśmie
MNiSW
5
spoza listy
| Status: | |
| Autorzy: | Biruk Sławomir, Jaśkowski Piotr, Czarnigowska Agata |
| Dyscypliny: | |
| Aby zobaczyć szczegóły należy się zalogować. | |
| Rok wydania: | 2019 |
| Wersja dokumentu: | Drukowana | Elektroniczna |
| Język: | angielski |
| Numer czasopisma: | 3 |
| Wolumen/Tom: | 603 |
| Numer artykułu: | 032094 |
| Strony: | 1 - 9 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 1 |
| Scopus® Cytowania: | 2 |
| Bazy: | Web of Science | Scopus |
| Efekt badań statutowych | NIE |
| Materiał konferencyjny: | TAK |
| Nazwa konferencji: | 4th World Multidisciplinary Civil Engineering-Architecture-Urban Planning Symposium |
| Skrócona nazwa konferencji: | WMCAUS 2019 |
| Termin konferencji: | 21 stycznia 2020 do 21 stycznia 2020 |
| Miasto konferencji: | Praga |
| Państwo konferencji: | CZECHY |
| Publikacja OA: | TAK |
| Licencja: | |
| Sposób udostępnienia: | Otwarte czasopismo |
| Wersja tekstu: | Ostateczna wersja opublikowana |
| Czas opublikowania: | W momencie opublikowania |
| Data opublikowania w OA: | 19 września 2019 |
| Abstrakty: | angielski |
| The Monte Carlo simulation has become a standard tool in the practice of planning risk-affected projects. In particular, it is frequently applied to testing the impact of risk on schedule networks with deterministic structures and random activity durations defined by distribution functions of any type. The accuracy of simulation-based estimates can be improved by increasing the number of replications or by applying variance reduction methods. This paper focuses on the latter and analyzes the impact of the variance reduction method on the scale of the standard error of the estimated mean value of project duration. Three methods of variance reduction were examined: the Quasi-Monte Carlo with Weyl sequence sampling, the antithetic variates, and the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The object of the simulation experiment was a sample network model with the activity durations of triangular distributions. This type of distribution was selected as it is often applied in the practice of construction scheduling to capture the variability of operating conditions in the absence of grounds for assuming other types of distribution. The results of the sample simulation provided an indirect proof that applying variance reduction measures may reduce the time of the simulation experiment (reduced number of replications) as well as improve the confidence in the estimates of the model's characteristics. © 2019 IOP Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved. |
