The security system of each country should be capable of identifying and eliminating
potential threats. However, such events' variety and unpredictability make it impossible to be
ready for each scenario, should one materialize. Situations posing a national security threat
require that effective actions be undertaken, including risk prevention and mitigation of its
effects. Decisions must be taken responsibly and competently. However, they also must be
taken quickly, as time is a key factor in any emergency. Extreme caution must be exercised, as
citizens' lives and health may depend on the strategic level decisions. Therefore, any instruments to support the decisions, enabling the best choices to be made, are very much desirable.
Knowledge of the scale of the phenomenon and its evolution is particularly useful and important here. It is easier to fight an opponent knowing their strengths and potential.
Design/Methodology/Approach: To know required, mathematical models may be constructed
describing the phenomenon in question and its development over time. This paper presents
and compares mathematical models describing the SARS-Cov-2 virus's evolution in four EU
countries (Poland, Germany, Great Britain, and Italy).
Findings: The ability to describe the evolution of the pandemic in mathematical terms and rely
on the results of such modeling in strategic state security management. The results obtained
were compared with the actions taken in the countries in question.
Practical Implications: Furthermore, the importance of reliable information in making crucial decisions on the national level and achieving the appropriate degree of citizen security