Prediction model of seasonality in the construction industry based on the accidentality phenomenon
Artykuł w czasopiśmie
MNiSW
140
Lista 2021
| Status: | |
| Autorzy: | Hoła Bożena, Topolski Mariusz, Szer Iwona, Szer Jacek, Błazik-Borowa Ewa |
| Dyscypliny: | |
| Aby zobaczyć szczegóły należy się zalogować. | |
| Rok wydania: | 2022 |
| Wersja dokumentu: | Drukowana | Elektroniczna |
| Język: | angielski |
| Numer czasopisma: | 1 |
| Wolumen/Tom: | 22 |
| Numer artykułu: | 30 |
| Strony: | 1 - 13 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 3 |
| Scopus® Cytowania: | 3 |
| Bazy: | Web of Science | Scopus |
| Efekt badań statutowych | NIE |
| Materiał konferencyjny: | NIE |
| Publikacja OA: | TAK |
| Licencja: | |
| Sposób udostępnienia: | Witryna wydawcy |
| Wersja tekstu: | Ostateczna wersja opublikowana |
| Czas opublikowania: | W momencie opublikowania |
| Data opublikowania w OA: | 21 grudnia 2021 |
| Abstrakty: | angielski |
| The construction industry is an economic sector that is characterized by seasonality. Seasonal factors affect the volume of production, which in turn affects the accident rate. The aim of the research presented in the article was to develop a model for predicting the number of people injured in occupational accidents in the construction industry. Based on the analysis of statistical data and previous studies, the occurrence of certain regularities of the accidentality phenomenon was found, namely the long-term trend over many years, as well as seasonality and cyclicality over the course of a year. The found regularities were the basis for the assumptions that were made for the construction of the model. A mathematical model was built in the non-linear regression dimension. The model was validated by comparing the results of prediction errors generated by the developed model with the results of prediction errors generated by other known models, such as ARIMA, SARIMA, linear and polynomial models, which take into account the seasonality of the phenomenon. The constructed model enables the number of people injured in accidents in the construction industry in selected months of future years to be predicted with high accuracy. The obtained results can be the basis for making appropriate decisions regarding preventive and prophylactic measures in the construction industry. Commonly known mathematical tools available in the STATISTICA package were used to solve the given task. |
