Statistical modelling of agrometeorological time series by exponential smoothing
Artykuł w czasopiśmie
MNiSW
25
Lista A
| Status: | |
| Autorzy: | Murat Małgorzata, Malinowska Iwona, Hoffman Holger, Baranowski Piotr |
| Rok wydania: | 2016 |
| Wersja dokumentu: | Drukowana | Elektroniczna |
| Język: | angielski |
| Numer czasopisma: | 1 |
| Wolumen/Tom: | 30 |
| Strony: | 57 - 65 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 11 |
| Scopus® Cytowania: | 17 |
| Bazy: | Web of Science | Scopus |
| Efekt badań statutowych | NIE |
| Materiał konferencyjny: | NIE |
| Publikacja OA: | TAK |
| Licencja: | |
| Sposób udostępnienia: | Otwarte czasopismo |
| Wersja tekstu: | Ostateczna wersja opublikowana |
| Czas opublikowania: | W momencie opublikowania |
| Abstrakty: | angielski |
| Meteorological time series are used in modelling agrophysical processes of the soil-plant-atmosphere system which determine plant growth and yield. Additionally, long-term meteorological series are used in climate change scenarios. Such studies often require forecasting or projection of meteorological variables, eg the projection of occurrence of the extreme events. The aim of the article was to determine the most suitable exponential smoothing models to generate forecast using data on air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation time series in Jokioinen (Finland), Dikopshof (Germany), Lleida (Spain), and Lublin (Poland). These series exhibit regular additive seasonality or non-seasonality without any trend, which is confirmed by their autocorrelation functions and partial autocorrelation functions. The most suitable models were indicated by the smallest mean absolute error and the smallest root mean squared error. |
